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Characterizing wildfire regimes where wildfires are uncommon is challenged by a lack of empirical information. Moreover, climate change is projected to lead to increasingly frequent wildfires and additional annual area burned in forests historically characterized by long fire return intervals. Western Oregon and Washington, USA (westside) have experienced few large wildfires (fires greater than 100 hectares) the past century and are characterized to infrequent large fires with return intervals greater than 500 years. We evaluated impacts of climate change on wildfire hazard in a major urban watershed outside Portland, OR, USA. We simulated wildfire occurrence and fire regime characteristics under contemporary conditions (1992–2015) and four mid-century (2040–2069) scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Simulated mid-century fire seasons expanded in most scenarios, in some cases by nearly two months. In all scenarios, average fire size and frequency projections increased significantly. Fire regime characteristics under the hottest and driest mid-century scenarios illustrate novel disturbance regimes which could result in permanent changes to forest structure and composition and the provision of ecosystem services. Managers and planners can use the range of modeled outputs and simulation results to inform robust strategies for climate adaptation and risk mitigation. 

As large, high‐severity forest fires increase and snowpacks become more vulnerable to climate change across the western USA, it is important to understand post‐fire disturbance impacts on snow hydrology. Here, we examine, quantify, parameterize, model, and assess the post‐fire radiative forcing effects on snow to improve hydrologic modelling of snow‐dominated watersheds having experienced severe forest fires. Following a 2011 high‐severity forest fire in the Oregon Cascades, we measured snow albedo, monitored snow, and micrometeorological conditions, sampled snow surface debris, and modelled snowpack energy and mass balance in adjacent burned forest (BF) and unburned forest sites. For three winters following the fire, charred debris in the BF reduced snow albedo, accelerated snow albedo decay, and increased snowmelt rates thereby advancing the date of snow disappearance compared with the unburned forest. We demonstrate a new parameterization of post‐fire snow albedo as a function of days‐since‐snowfall and net snowpack energy balance using an empirically based exponential decay function. Incorporating our new post‐fire snow albedo decay parameterization in a spatially distributed energy and mass balance snow model, we show significantly improved predictions of snow cover duration and spatial variability of snow water equivalent across the BF, particularly during the late snowmelt period. Field measurements, snow model results, and remote sensing data demonstrate that charred forests increase the radiative forcing to snow and advance the timing of snow disappearance for several years following fire. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.